Highlights

• • Surface advantage to Pellegrino (grass experience)
• • Market slightly underestimates Pellegrino vs our 66% probability

Pros

• + Pellegrino has documented grass experience while Travaglia lacks it in his profile
• + Current odds (1.556) are above our min required 1.515 for a 66% win chance

Cons

• - Edge is small — limited margin for error or unforeseen factors (injury, conditions)
• - No head-to-head or detailed injury information provided to further reduce uncertainty

Details

We see value on Andrea Pellegrino (away). The market prices Pellegrino at 1.556 (implied ~64.2%). From the provided profiles Pellegrino has documented grass experience while Stefano Travaglia's listed surfaces are clay and hard, suggesting a surface advantage for Pellegrino on grass. Pellegrino also brings a much larger career sample and likely more comfort on varied surfaces. Both players had recent matches in Genoa on clay, so recent form is not a clear edge for Travaglia. Balancing the surface edge, experience, and current market pricing, we estimate Pellegrino's true win probability at ~66%, which makes the current 1.556 price slightly above the fair threshold and yields a small positive expected value. We acknowledge uncertainty due to lack of H2H and injury details, so the edge is modest rather than large.

Key factors

• • Surface: match is on grass and Pellegrino has grass experience while Travaglia's profile lacks grass
• • Experience gap: Pellegrino has a much larger career sample indicating adaptability to surfaces
• • Current market price (1.556) implies ~64% — our estimated true probability (66%) implies slight value