Highlights

• • Implied away probability 31.7% vs our 36% estimate
• • Required price for break-even is ~2.78; current 3.15 exceeds that

Pros

• + Positive expected value at current odds (+13.4% ROI)
• + Recent form and service performance in Genoa favor Cadenasso's chances

Cons

• - Travaglia's greater experience and overall career win-rate present upset risk
• - Limited public detail on injuries/fitness could change actual probabilities

Details

The market prices Stefano Travaglia as a heavy favorite at 1.33 (implied ~75.2%) while Gianluca Cadenasso is available at 3.15 (implied ~31.7%). We estimate Cadenasso's true chance at ~36% based on the research: he has solid recent form at the Genoa Challenger (qualifier wins, a match showing 85% 1st-serve won), and plays well on clay. Travaglia is the more experienced player overall, but his recent results in Genoa include at least one withdrawal/uncertain result and a win — suggesting he may not be as dominant as the market implies. Using our 36% probability, the fair decimal price is ~2.78, so the available 3.15 offers positive edge. At 3.15 the EV = 0.36*3.15 - 1 = +0.134 (≈13.4% ROI). Given the information provided, the value lies with backing the away player at current widely-available pricing.

Key factors

• • Market implies Cadenasso ~31.7% but our read is ~36% based on recent form
• • Cadenasso has strong recent qualifier results and high 1st-serve effectiveness in Genoa
• • Travaglia is experienced but recent Genoa results are mixed and he may be overrated by the market