Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Joao Fonseca
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We find value backing Joao Fonseca at 1.86—our 60% estimated win probability yields ~11.6% ROI versus the market-implied ~53.8%.
Highlights
- • Fonseca’s season win rate is meaningfully higher than Tsitsipas’ in the supplied data
- • Current market odds of 1.86 imply ~53.8%—below our 60% estimate for Fonseca
Pros
- + Material season-long win-loss advantage for Fonseca in the provided profiles
- + Current odds offer a clear margin above our break-even decimal (1.667)
Cons
- - Research includes limited direct matchup or injury detail—uncertainty remains
- - Tennis outcomes can be swingy in single-match formats; short-term form can override season metrics
Details
We compare the market price (both players listed at 1.86) to our read of form and season performance. The market-implied probability at 1.86 is 1/1.86 = 0.538 (53.8%). From the supplied profiles, Joao Fonseca has a stronger season win-loss (43-19, ~69%) versus Stefanos Tsitsipas (30-22, ~58%), and a larger sample of matches, which we interpret as a materially higher baseline win probability. Both players have experience across clay, grass, and hard, and both showed mixed results in the recent US Open results listed, so surface/sudden form swings do not negate Fonseca's season-long edge. Adjusting for matchup variance and the limited head-to-head context in the research, we estimate Fonseca's true probability at 60.0%, which is meaningfully above the market-implied 53.8%, producing positive expected value at the posted decimal 1.86.
Key factors
- • Joao Fonseca season record superior (43-19) vs Tsitsipas (30-22)
- • Both players have multi-surface experience; no clear surface edge provided
- • Market prices (1.86 each) appear to underrate Fonseca given season performance