Highlights

• • Favorite implied probability (1.36) = ~73.5%; our estimate = 68%
• • EV on the favorite at current odds is negative (~ -7.5% ROI)

Pros

• + Market clearly identifies a favorite (cheap price) so match is priced tightly
• + If additional positive info on Virtanen appears (e.g., recent form/injury to opponent), odds could be justified

Cons

• - No research/data available to justify a probability above the market-implied level
• - High variance of single-match tennis outcomes increases downside when EV is small or negative

Details

We conservatively estimate Otto Virtanen is the favorite but, with no external data returned, we assign a cautious true-win probability of 68% for Virtanen. The market decimal odds of 1.36 imply a win probability of ~73.53%, which is materially higher than our estimate and therefore leaves no value on the favorite. The underdog (Sakellaridis) at 3.00 implies ~33.3% chance; given the lack of supporting data for a large upset probability, we do not see sufficient edge backing the home player either. With these conservative assumptions and the market pricing, neither side offers positive expected value at current prices.

Key factors

• • No external research returned; assumptions are conservative
• • Market implies Virtanen win probability (~73.5%) which exceeds our estimate (68%)
• • Tennis matches can be high variance; without form/injury/surface data we avoid taking positions