Stefanos Sakellaridis vs Thiago Seyboth Wild
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We recommend a back of Stefanos Sakellaridis at current odds (2.28) because our conservative true-win estimate (54%) implies a fair price ~1.852, producing ~+23% EV at the current market price.
Highlights
- • Sakellaridis' career record and recent hard-court results suggest he is undervalued by the market.
- • Current odds 2.28 imply a much lower probability than our estimate, creating measurable value.
Pros
- + Clear numerical advantage in provided win-loss records and recent hard-court form.
- + Large gap between our fair odds (1.852) and market price (2.28) yields strong EV.
Cons
- - No direct head-to-head or contextual match-up details provided; model uses conservative adjustments.
- - Market favorite (Seyboth Wild) may reflect unseen factors not in the supplied data (fitness, draw, indoor/outdoor differences).
Details
We find value on the home player, Stefanos Sakellaridis. The market makes Thiago Seyboth Wild the clear favorite at decimal 1.57 (implied ~63.7%) while Sakellaridis is priced at 2.28 (implied ~43.9%). Using only the provided profiles, Sakellaridis has a markedly superior career win rate (50-22, ~69% across 72 matches) versus Seyboth Wild (25-27, ~48% across 52 matches). Both players have recent matches on hard courts, but Seyboth Wild's recent listed results show consecutive losses including a hard-court exit, whereas Sakellaridis has recent wins on hard (Challenger level) and an overall strong record. Conservatively adjusting for sample/context and lack of H2H data, we estimate Sakellaridis' true chance at 54%. At that probability the fair decimal price is ~1.852; the current 2.28 line therefore offers positive expected value. Calculation: EV = 0.54 * 2.28 - 1 = 0.2312 (≈ +23.1% ROI per unit staked). We used the current moneyline 2.28 for the EV calculation.
Key factors
- • Sakellaridis' stronger career win-rate (50-22) versus Seyboth Wild (25-27)
- • Both players have recorded hard-court matches recently; Sakellaridis shows recent Challenger-level hard wins while Seyboth Wild shows recent losses
- • Market heavily favors Seyboth Wild (implied ~63.7%) which conflicts with the head-to-head profile and recent form in the provided data