Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Thiago Seyboth Wild

Highlights

• • Market-implied probability: ~84.0%
• • Our estimated probability: 78.0% → fair odds ~1.282

Pros

• + Tsitsipas is the clear favorite with stronger career metrics
• + Both players' surfaces experience is similar, reducing upset likelihood

Cons

• - Current price (1.19) is too short relative to our model and offers negative ROI
• - Recent mixed form for both players introduces variance and prevents a >80% certainty

Details

We compare the market-implied probability for Tsitsipas (1/1.19 = 84.0%) to our estimated true win probability of 78.0%. Tsitsipas has the stronger career win rate (30-22 vs 25-27) and likely the class edge, so we assign him a high but not 84% chance. Both players have mixed recent form and play across similar surfaces, which limits an upward revision of Tsitsipas's probability. At our estimate the fair decimal price is ~1.282; the current 1.19 is too short and produces a negative expected value (-7.18% ROI), so there is no value in backing the favorite at the quoted price.

Key factors

• • Tsitsipas has a better overall win-loss record and class advantage
• • Both players have mixed recent form; recent losses limit confidence in a >80% estimate
• • Market-implied probability (84.0%) is meaningfully higher than our true-probability estimate (78%)