Highlights

• • Nada's career win rate ~52% — far below the market-implied ~91%
• • No opponent data to justify Stela's long price, and no evidence to support a >90% probability for Nada

Pros

• + Nada is an experienced player with a positive career record
• + Market consensus clearly favors Nada, reflecting expected match control

Cons

• - Quoted favorite price (1.10) offers negative expected value against a realistic probability
• - Recent listed losses indicate form is not dominant; lack of opponent info increases uncertainty

Details

The market prices Nada Fouad at 1.10 (implied ~90.9%) which is far higher than what the available data supports. Nada's career record (559-507) implies a long-term win rate of ~52.4%, and recent listed results include losses at Challenger-level events, indicating form is not near a near-certain win probability. Given the absence of any data on Stela Dzimovic in the research and no injury reports, we conservatively estimate Nada's true probability well below the implied 90.9% (we estimate 65%). At that probability the required fair odds would be ~1.538, so the quoted 1.10 offers strongly negative expected value. Conversely, the long odds on Stela (6.40, implied ~15.6%) could look attractive only if there were specific reasons to believe Nada's chance is <15.6%, which the research does not support. Therefore we do not recommend a bet at current prices.

Key factors

• • Nada Fouad career record 559-507 => long-term win rate ~52.4%
• • Recent listed matches include losses at Challenger-level events (form not dominant)
• • Market price (1.10) implies ~90.9% win probability, which is not supported by the available data