Highlights

• • Records: Kamendje 2-7, Ambarzumjan 3-6 (small samples)
• • Market strongly favors Ambarzumjan (implied ~73.5%) which we do not support with the available data

Pros

• + Home price (2.98) would offer value if we believed Kamendje was meaningfully stronger than his record suggests
• + No injury or surface mismatch flags in the provided data

Cons

• - Very limited match sample and inconsistent recent results increase variance and forecasting uncertainty
• - Market favorite is short-priced; would require a much higher confidence in Ambarzumjan (>73%) to justify a bet on him

Details

We compared the market prices to a conservative true-probability estimate based on the limited head-to-head information, recent form and surface exposure in the provided profiles. Edison Ambarzumjan has a slightly better career win rate (3-6 vs 2-7) and some stronger serving stats in his recent lines, which justifies the market favoring him. The market implies a ~73.5% chance for Ambarzumjan (1.361) which is far higher than any plausible estimate from the limited data; the home line (2.98) implies ~33.6%. We estimate Stephane Pierre Jo Kamendje's true win probability at ~33.5%, which is essentially in line with the 2.98 price and produces a trivial negative expected value (≈ -0.17% ROI) at current odds. Because expected value is not positive at available prices, we do not recommend a bet.

Key factors

• • Both players have very small sample sizes (9 matches) and inconsistent recent results
• • Ambarzumjan shows a slightly better win record and stronger recent serving stats, supporting market favoritism
• • Current market pricing (heavy favorite on Away) appears to overstate certainty; underdog price is roughly fair to slightly overpriced