Highlights

• • Home implied probability (58.5%) exceeds our conservative estimate (57.5%)
• • Small negative EV (-0.0168) at the listed home price

Pros

• + Home player is the favorite, implying some baseline edge
• + Odds are stable and widely available

Cons

• - Insufficient public information on form, surface, injuries or H2H to justify an edge
• - Market margin turns a marginal difference in win probability into negative EV

Details

We assume a conservative true probability for the home player (Stephane Pierre-Jo Kamendje) of 57.5% based on home/favorite designation but absent any form, surface or injury information. The market-implied probability at the quoted home decimal 1.71 is 58.5% (1/1.71), so the market already prices a slightly higher chance than our estimate. Calculating EV using our estimate: EV = 0.575 * 1.71 - 1 = -0.01675, i.e. a small negative ROI. Given the bookmaker margin and the lack of additional informational edges (injury news, strong recent form, clear H2H advantage), there is no positive expected value on the home line at 1.71. We therefore recommend no bet.

Key factors

• • Market-implied probability (1.71) is ~58.5%, slightly above our conservative true estimate (57.5%)
• • No available information on surface, form, injuries or H2H to justify an edge
• • Bookmaker margin reduces available value in a low-information match