Stephanie Judith Visscher vs Carolina Kuhl

Highlights

• • Home odds 2.45 imply 40.8% — we estimate 48% true win chance
• • Estimated ROI on current price ~17.6%

Pros

• + Clear value gap between estimated probability and market price
• + No injury or matchup evidence supporting the heavy away favoritism

Cons

• - Small sample size and limited data depth increase uncertainty
• - No head-to-head data or detailed match-level stats to refine the estimate

Details

We find value backing the home player Stephanie Judith Visscher at 2.45. The market prices Carolina Kuhl at 1.478 (implied ~67.6%) despite the research showing near-identical career records (both 10-21), similar surface histories (Clay/Hard) and comparable recent form (multiple recent defeats). There are no injury notes or clear performance indicators that justify such a large gap. We estimate the true probability for Visscher at 48%, which implies fair decimal odds of ~2.083; the offered 2.45 therefore represents positive expected value. EV calculation: 0.48 * 2.45 - 1 = 0.176 (17.6% ROI on a 1-unit stake).

Key factors

• • Both players display nearly identical career records (10-21) indicating parity
• • Recent form: both have suffered recent losses — no clear momentum advantage
• • Surface profiles (Clay/Hard) are similar for both players, offering no strong edge
• • Market heavily favors the away player (implied ~67.6%) without supporting evidence