Highlights

• • Oetzbach's larger match sample and winning record greatly favor him
• • Current odds imply ~81.4% but we estimate ~90%, creating value

Pros

• + Clear form and experience disparity in favor of Oetzbach
• + Current price offers positive expected value per our projection

Cons

• - Small possibility of matchup-specific quirks or unreported injuries not in provided research
• - Tennis matches have variance; even strong favorites can be upset on a given day

Details

We see clear value backing Adrian Oetzbach at the current market price. The market decimal price of 1.228 implies a win probability of ~81.4% (1/1.228). Based on the supplied profiles, Oetzbach has a large sample and a positive record (37-28 across 65 matches) and recent match activity, while Paardekooper is 0-7 in 7 career matches with consecutive losses. Surface exposure for both includes clay/hard but Oetzbach's experience and winning record materially increase his true win chance. We estimate Adrian's true win probability at 90% (0.90). At this probability the fair odds are 1.111 (1/0.90) and the expected value at the current price is EV = 0.90 * 1.228 - 1 = 0.1052 (≈10.5% ROI). Because EV > 0 at the quoted price, we recommend taking the away moneyline.

Key factors

• • Large experience and positive overall record for Oetzbach (37-28) vs Paardekooper (0-7)
• • Recent form: Paardekooper has consecutive losses and no recorded wins in the supplied span
• • Market price (1.228) underestimates Oetzbach relative to our 90% win estimate, producing positive EV