Highlights

• • Clear win-rate advantage for Stijn (35-28 vs 9-23)
• • Current market odds (1.90) are above our fair threshold (1.754)

Pros

• + Stronger overall record and larger sample size supporting a higher true probability
• + Recent play on clay for both players reduces surface-adjustment uncertainty

Cons

• - Limited direct H2H data and potential short-term form swings increase variance
• - Petkovic's low sample but unpredictable results introduce higher upset risk

Details

We find value on the home player, Stijn Slump. His career record (35-28, ~56% win rate) is materially stronger than Mika Petkovic's (9-23, ~28% win rate) and both have recent matches on clay, a surface both have experience on. The market prices the match very close (Home 1.90, Away 1.82) — implying bookmakers see it as essentially a coin flip — but the empirical win-rate gap and slightly better recent outcomes for Slump suggest his true win probability is higher than the market-implied probability at 1.90. Using a conservative true probability estimate of 57%, the break-even decimal odds would be 1.754; the available 1.90 therefore yields positive expected value. We account for sample-size risk (Petkovic has far fewer wins and matches), possible form variability, and lack of direct H2H data when sizing our probability, which is why we use a modest edge rather than an extreme one.

Key factors

• • Stijn Slump has a substantially better career win-loss record (35-28 vs 9-23)
• • Both players have recent matches on clay, neutralizing major surface bias
• • Bookmakers price is close (1.90 vs 1.82); our fair odds model favors Stijn