Highlights

• • Home implied win prob ~84.0%; our conservative estimate 83.0%
• • Required odds to make this +EV with our estimate: ≥1.205

Pros

• + Clearly defined favorite with low payout risk if purely picking winner
• + Small edge would be available if we had stronger evidence to raise our true probability above 85%

Cons

• - Current market contains no value vs our conservative probability estimate (EV negative)
• - Significant uncertainty due to lack of data (surface, injuries, recent form, H2H)

Details

We view the market price (home 1.19, away 4.25) as strongly favoring the home player. With no external form, surface, injury, or H2H data available, we adopt a conservative estimate of the home player’s true win probability at 83.0%. The bookmaker-implied probability for the home player is ~84.0% (1/1.19) but includes margin; after accounting for uncertainty and the vigorish we judge the fair probability slightly below the market-implied level. Using our estimated probability, the expected value at the current home price is negative (EV = 0.83 * 1.19 - 1 = -0.0123), so there is no positive expected value in backing the favorite at the quoted odds. To be +EV with our probability estimate, decimal odds would need to be at least 1.205 or higher.

Key factors

• • No corroborating data on form, surface, injuries or H2H — we use conservative assumptions
• • Bookmaker-implied probability for home (84.0%) is close to our estimate but includes margin
• • Small margin of error turns this market into a slight negative EV for the favorite