Highlights

• • Market-implied home probability 89.3% vs our 88% estimate
• • Required decimal odds to achieve value on Stijn: >= 1.136; current 1.12 is too short

Pros

• + Clear qualitative edge for Stijn from career record and recent M15 activity
• + Surface familiarity for both players reduces unknowns about surface advantage

Cons

• - Market price compresses any potential value on the favorite
• - Limited recent-match signal and no H2H increases variance and model uncertainty

Details

We estimate Stijn Slump is the clear favorite based on career win-rate advantage (78-69 vs 36-74) and recent activity at M15 events on clay, but the market price (home 1.12, implied 89.3%) is slightly stronger than our best estimate of his true win chance (88%). At 1.12 the ROI is slightly negative for the favorite (EV = 0.88 * 1.12 - 1 = -0.0144). The away price (5.56, implied 18.0%) also offers no value versus our estimated probability for Joao (≈12%). Given the narrow margin between our home probability and the market-implied probability, there is no positive expected value on either side at current widely-available prices.

Key factors

• • Stijn Slump has a substantially better career record (78-69 vs 36-74) suggesting a quality edge
• • Both players recently played M15 clay events—form is mixed for each, offering limited additional confidence
• • Market strongly favors the home player (1.12); implied probability (89.3%) exceeds our estimate (88%), removing value
• • No head-to-head info and relatively small sample at this level increase uncertainty