Highlights

• • Market implies ~89.3% for Slump; our estimate ~66%
• • Backing Slump at current odds yields an estimated ROI of about -26%

Pros

• + Slump has the stronger historical record and greater match volume
• + Surface experience is similar and does not negate Slump's edge

Cons

• - Current odds for Slump do not offer value — too short to overcome upset risk
• - Limited additional context (no H2H, injury, or current-form detail) reduces confidence in declaring extremely high probabilities

Details

The market prices Stijn Slump at 1.12 (implied win probability ~89.3%) which requires an extremely high true-win chance to be profitable. Our assessment, based solely on the provided career records and recent results, places Slump's true win probability closer to 66%: he has a superior overall record (35-28 vs 10-14) and more match experience, but nothing in the data supports a >89% chance. At our estimated probability the expected value of backing Slump at 1.12 is negative (EV = 0.66*1.12 - 1 = -0.261), so no value exists at current quoted prices. To be profitable on Slump you would need decimal odds ≥ 1.515; the current market is far below that threshold, so we advise taking no side.

Key factors

• • Stijn Slump has a notably better overall win-loss record and significantly more matches played
• • Both players have experience on clay/hard; provided recent-match details do not show dominance justifying >89% probability
• • Market heavily favors the home player (1.12) producing a negative EV against our estimated true probability