Storm Hunter vs Emiliana Arango
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: No value at current prices: both sides produce slightly negative EV versus our assessed probabilities, so we recommend not betting this match.
Highlights
- • Market implied probabilities: Storm Hunter 40.2%, Arango 63.1%
- • Our model: Storm Hunter 40%, Arango 60% — no positive EV at posted odds
Pros
- + We used conservative probability estimates given limited data
- + Clear numerical check shows tiny negative EV for the underdog at current price
Cons
- - Research is sparse and duplicated, increasing uncertainty in estimates
- - Small edges could flip with more detailed form / injury / H2H information
Details
We compared the market prices (Storm Hunter 2.49 => implied 40.16%; Emiliana Arango 1.585 => implied 63.09%) to our assessment. The available research is sparse and shows near-identical career summaries and limited recent-match detail, so we place Storm Hunter at an estimated true win probability of 40.0% and Arango at 60.0%. At those probabilities the home price (2.49) yields a marginally negative expectation (EV = 0.40*2.49 - 1 = -0.004), so there is no value to back Storm Hunter at the current market. Arango at 1.585 is also slightly over-priced versus our 60% estimate (EV = 0.60*1.585 - 1 = -0.049). Given the limited and noisy data, we decline to recommend a side.
Key factors
- • Market implies Storm Hunter ~40.2% and Arango ~63.1%; our assessment is 40%/60%
- • Research provided is minimal and largely duplicated, giving no clear edge on form or surface
- • Current favorite (Arango) price is close to our probability; underdog price is marginally short of required fair odds