Storm Hunter vs Emiliana Arango
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We find value on Storm Hunter at 3.20 because the limited research shows parity between players and our estimated win probability (38%) makes the offered odds profitable.
Highlights
- • Arango is priced as a heavy favorite despite similar recent results in the research
- • Storm Hunter reaches positive EV at any price above ~2.63 given our probability
Pros
- + Clear numerical edge vs. market: current odds > fair odds under our model
- + Research provides no injury or surface reason to justify large market gap
Cons
- - Research is sparse and partially duplicated for both players, increasing model uncertainty
- - If Arango has unreported form or conditions favoring her, actual probability could be materially higher
Details
The market heavily favors Emiliana Arango at 1.35 (implied ~74.1%), pricing Storm Hunter at 3.20 (implied ~31.3%). The provided player data shows both competitors with similar career records and nearly identical recent-match listings, with no clear injury or surface advantage shown in the research. Given those parity signals, we view the match as much closer than the market implies. We estimate Storm Hunter's true win probability at 38%; at that probability the fair decimal price is ~2.63, so the available 3.20 offers positive expected value. Calculation: EV = 0.38 * 3.20 - 1 = +0.216 (21.6% ROI on a 1-unit stake). We therefore recommend the home upset at current widespread prices because the market appears to over-price Arango relative to the limited-form evidence.
Key factors
- • Market implies Arango ~74% while research shows similar recent form for both players
- • No injury or surface edge flagged in the provided data — reduces confidence in heavy favorite
- • Current home price (3.20) exceeds break-even threshold for our probability estimate (2.632)