Highlights

• • Siniakova priced at 1.15 implies ~87% chance — we find that overstated
• • With sparse, non-conclusive data on form/surface, neither side offers positive EV

Pros

• + Clear market signal indicates how bookmakers view the match (helps compare probabilities)
• + We used a conservative probability estimate given limited information

Cons

• - Research provided is minimal and partially duplicated, increasing uncertainty
• - If unknown factors (injury, withdrawal, recent form) exist, our estimate could be off

Details

We see an overwhelming market price on Katerina Siniakova (decimal 1.15, implied ~87.0%). Based on the available research (which is sparse and nearly identical for both players with no clear injury or decisive H2H/surface advantage), we estimate Siniakova's true win probability at ~77.0%. Comparing that to the market: 77.0% true vs 87.0% implied creates negative expected value on the favorite. Conversely, Storm Hunter at 5.50 (implied ~18.2%) would require a much higher true upset probability (~18.2% -> but we estimate far lower), so the underdog price also shows no plausible value given available information. Therefore we do not recommend taking either side at current prices.

Key factors

• • Market strongly favors Siniakova (implied ~87%) creating little upside
• • Available research is limited and nearly identical for both players—no clear edge
• • Underdog price (Storm Hunter 5.50) would need a materially higher upset probability to show value