Highlights

• • Market price (1.714) implies ~58.4% chance; we estimate 62%
• • Positive expected value of ~0.063 (6.3% ROI) at current odds

Pros

• + Home pairing's combined doubles experience and surface familiarity supports a slightly higher win chance
• + Current price offers a small but tangible edge vs our probability model

Cons

• - Provided recent-form data is noisy and shows losses for multiple players, increasing match-level uncertainty
• - Edge is modest; variance in doubles matches and potential unreported factors (fatigue, partnerships) could erase expected value

Details

We compare the market-implied probability for the home pairing (1.714 -> implied 58.35%) to our assessment. Player profiles show both Storm Hunter and Laura Pigossi have substantial doubles experience across surfaces including hard courts, while the research indicates mixed/negative recent results for all four players (no clear injury flags). Given the home pairing's complementary doubles pedigree and activity at this level, we estimate their true win probability at 62.0%, which is ~3.7 percentage points higher than the market-implied level. At the quoted home price (decimal 1.714) that gap produces a positive expected value. We also note uncertainty from limited recent-form signal in the provided data, so the edge is modest but present.

Key factors

• • Both home players have extensive doubles experience and history on hard courts per their profiles
• • Market-implied probability (58.4%) is below our estimated true probability (62%), creating a measurable edge
• • Recent-form entries in the provided research show mixed/negative results for both teams, adding variance and model uncertainty