Highlights

• • Research shows no clear performance or injury edge for either player
• • Hunter’s implied probability (18.18%) is essentially in line with our estimate (18.0%), producing slightly negative EV at 5.5

Pros

• + We err on the side of conservatism given limited and conflicting data
• + Clear numeric thresholds provided so value can be re-evaluated if prices move

Cons

• - Supply of research is sparse and duplicated; some useful context (rankings, recent head-to-head, injuries) is missing
• - A small change in our probability estimate would flip the recommendation, so the situation is sensitive to new info

Details

We compared the quoted prices to a conservative, research-based probability for the underdog (Storm Hunter). The available profiles show near-identical career-level statistics and no clear form, injury or surface edge in the provided data, so we do not have evidence to materially disagree with the market’s heavy lean toward K. Siniakova. The market-implied chance for Hunter at 5.5 is ~18.18%; our estimated true probability for Hunter is 18.0%, which requires minimum odds of 5.556 to be +EV. At the current Hunter price (5.5) the small negative EV (-0.01) means we cannot recommend a value back. Similarly, the favorite’s price (1.15) implies ~87% win probability which would require us to believe Siniakova’s true win chance exceeds that level to be +EV; the research does not justify that conviction. Therefore we do not recommend a side at the available prices.

Key factors

• • Provided player profiles show near-identical career records and no clear advantage
• • No injury, form or surface edge documented in the supplied research
• • Current market odds (5.5 for Hunter, 1.15 for Siniakova) leave negligible or negative expected value versus our conservative estimate