Highlights

• • Market-implied probability for Jang = 44.1% but our estimate = 48%
• • Positive EV at current price: ~+0.0896 (8.96% ROI)

Pros

• + Identical records and surface profiles argue for a much closer contest than market pricing
• + Current price (2.27) exceeds our fair price threshold (min required odds 2.083)

Cons

• - Data set lacks H2H, injury, or more granular recent-form indicators to strongly support the edge
• - Small-sample season records (31 matches) increases variance and outcome uncertainty

Details

We view this as a value opportunity on the home player, Su Jeong Jang. The market prices Momoko Kobori as a clear favorite at decimal 1.581 (implied ~63.3%), while Su Jeong Jang is priced at 2.27 (implied ~44.1%). The available background shows both players with essentially identical career records (10-21) and the same surface experience profile, with no clear form or injury edge for Kobori in the provided data. Given the parity in records and conditions, the market looks skewed toward Kobori; we estimate the true win probability for Jang at 48%, which is materially higher than the market-implied 44.1% for her. At Jang's current price of 2.27 this produces a positive expected value (EV = 0.48*2.27 - 1 = +0.0896, ~8.96% ROI). We therefore recommend backing the home player, but note the recommendation is based on the absence of distinguishing factors in the dataset rather than strong positive indicators for Jang.

Key factors

• • Both players show identical career records and surface experience in the provided data
• • Market heavily favors Kobori (implied ~63.3%) despite no clear edge in the research
• • Lack of injury or form differentiation suggests closer to even match than market implies