Highlights

• • Away implied probability ~92.6% vs our estimate ~25%
• • Home decimal 7.5 >> fair-break-even decimal 4.0 for a 25% win chance

Pros

• + Large margin between market price and our conservative fair odds, producing high EV
• + No research evidence (form, injuries, H2H) supporting such a heavy away favoritism

Cons

• - Limited data on Suha Lee specifically in the provided research increases model uncertainty
• - Underdog bets are high variance; a single match event can still result in loss despite positive EV

Details

We see a huge market lean to the away side (1.08 implied ~92.6%) while the available player profiles in research show near-identical career spans and 10-21 records for the named players, with no injury flags or clear surface advantage reported. There is no substantive evidence in the provided data to justify an away win probability above 90%. Using a conservative, parity-aware estimate that the home pairing has a roughly 25% true chance (well above the market-implied 13.33%), the home moneyline at 7.5 offers substantial value. Calculation: implied market probability for home = 1/7.5 = 13.33%; our estimated_true_probability = 25%; expected_value = 0.25*7.5 - 1 = 0.875 (87.5% ROI on a 1-unit stake). The minimum fair decimal price to justify a 25% win chance is 4.0, and the current 7.5 is far above that, creating clear positive EV under our conservative model.

Key factors

• • Player profiles provided (Ha Yoon Son, Heerae Im, Dabin Kim) show nearly identical records and no clear superiority
• • No reported injuries or conditions in the research to justify a 92% away market probability
• • Market-implied home probability (13.3%) appears implausibly low given parity; current price (7.5) offers significant margin over conservative fair odds