Highlights

• • Market implies 62.5% for Yoshimoto vs. our ~35% estimate for her
• • Home at 2.20 offers a large theoretical ROI (~+43%) under our projection

Pros

• + Substantial positive expected value using conservative read of Yoshimoto's record
• + Clear mismatch between supplied performance data and market-implied probability

Cons

• - Very limited/no data on Suha Lee in the provided research increases model risk
• - Our estimate relies on a single-player profile and could be overturned by unprovided context (injury, surface preference, head-to-head)

Details

We compare the market-implied probabilities to our read of the available performance data. The current market prices imply Away (Natsuki Yoshimoto) win probability 1/1.6 = 62.5% and Home (Suha Lee) 1/2.2 = 45.5%. Yoshimoto's provided career win-loss record is 10-21 (10/31 = 32.3%) with recent losses on both hard and clay, which is materially lower than the 62.5% implied by the 1.6 price. With no data provided on Suha Lee, the most conservative inference is that Yoshimoto is overvalued by the market. We estimate Yoshimoto's true match win chance closer to ~35% (based on her career win rate and recent form), which implies Suha Lee's true win probability around 65%. At that estimate the home price of 2.2 offers clear value (EV = 0.65*2.2 - 1 = +0.43). Because our view is driven primarily by Yoshimoto's weak record from the supplied source and there is limited/no data on Suha Lee, uncertainty is high and this position should be considered speculative despite the positive edge.

Key factors

• • Natsuki Yoshimoto career win rate is low (10-21, ~32%) and recent results show multiple losses
• • Market prices favor Yoshimoto heavily (1.6) which contrasts with her supplied performance record
• • No data provided on Suha Lee increases verdict uncertainty; value arises from likely market mispricing