Highlights

• • Market implies 64.5% for Suha Lee; we estimate 70%
• • Positive EV of ~0.085 on a 1-unit stake at current odds

Pros

• + Aikawa's recent losses and low career win rate support a higher probability for the favorite
• + Current home price (1.55) exceeds our minimum required odds (1.429) for a positive edge

Cons

• - Limited direct information on Suha Lee in the provided research increases uncertainty
• - Edge is modest; variance in tennis matches can still produce frequent upsets

Details

We compare the market pricing to the on-court evidence available for the underdog. The market implies Suha Lee has a 64.5% chance to win (1/1.55). Mayuka Aikawa's profile shows a 10-21 career record and clear recent struggles (multiple recent losses, limited wins), which suggests her true win probability in this matchup is lower than the market is pricing for Suha Lee. Aikawa's recent string of defeats and low win rate push our estimated probability for Suha Lee up to 70%. At that level, the current home price of 1.55 offers positive expected value (EV = 0.70 * 1.55 - 1 = +0.085). We see no specific injury or surface disadvantage for Suha Lee in the provided research; Aikawa has primarily played clay and hard, so surface is not a clear mitigator of the gap. Given the available information, backing Suha Lee at 1.55 represents a value play because the market underestimates her probability relative to the documented weakness in Aikawa's form.

Key factors

• • Mayuka Aikawa's poor recent form and 10-21 career record
• • Market-implied probability for Suha Lee (64.5%) is below our estimate (70%)
• • No contradictory injury or surface information in the research to reduce the favorite's edge