Suha Lee vs Onyu Choi
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: Based on Onyu Choi's poor 10/31 record and recent losses, Suha Lee at 1.70 represents positive expected value (EV ≈ +0.152) versus the available prices.
Highlights
- • Onyu's observed win rate ~32% implies Suha win probability ~67.7%
- • Home price 1.70 yields positive EV under this model
Pros
- + Clear quantitative edge derived from Onyu's career record and recent form
- + Current home price (1.70) is above the breakeven threshold (1.477) for our probability
Cons
- - No direct data on Suha Lee or H2H to further validate the estimate
- - Small sample and potential unreported factors (injury, travel, conditions) increase uncertainty
Details
We derive Onyu Choi's baseline win probability from her documented career record of 10-21 (10 wins in 31 matches = 0.323). With no direct data for Suha Lee provided, the simplest inference is Suha is the stronger player here, so we set Suha's estimated true probability to 1 - 0.323 = 0.677. Onyu's recent form in the last 10 matches is poor (mostly losses on hard surfaces), which supports downgrading Onyu's chances further rather than improving them. At the current home moneyline of 1.70, the expected value is positive: EV = 0.677 * 1.70 - 1 = +0.152 (15.2% ROI). The away price (2.05) offers negative EV when using Onyu's observed win rate (EV ≈ 0.323 * 2.05 - 1 = -0.339), so we do not recommend the away side. We acknowledge uncertainty due to missing direct data on Suha Lee, lack of H2H, and no injury information, which is reflected in a medium risk assessment.
Key factors
- • Onyu Choi career record 10-21 (31 matches) => win rate ~32.3%
- • Recent form: majority losses in last 10 matches, mainly on hard courts
- • No data provided for Suha Lee or H2H, increasing uncertainty