Highlights

• • Market underestimates home: implied 58.8% vs our 67% estimate
• • Noguchi's 10-21 record and recent losses justify a lower away probability

Pros

• + Clear positive EV at available 1.70 price
• + Noguchi's documented poor form supports backing the opponent

Cons

• - No direct data on Suha Lee provided — increases model uncertainty
• - Lack of surface and H2H info could materially affect true probabilities

Details

The market prices Suha Lee at 1.70 (implied 58.8%). We estimate Suha Lee's true win probability at 67% based primarily on Sae Noguchi's weak profile in the provided research: a 10-21 career record (31% win rate over 31 matches) and recent losses cited in her last results. Noguchi's recent form and low career win-rate imply she should be a clear underdog versus an unspecified opponent; with no contrary information on Suha Lee (no injuries reported for Noguchi, no H2H or Suha data provided), the sensible baseline is to upgrade the home player's probability above the market. At our 67% estimate the fair decimal price would be ~1.493; the offered 1.70 therefore contains value (EV = 0.67*1.70 - 1 = +0.139). We acknowledge uncertainty from missing data on Suha Lee and lack of surface/H2H detail, so we apply conservative probability sizing.

Key factors

• • Sae Noguchi's poor career record (10-21; ~32% win rate)
• • Recent losses in Noguchi's last results indicating weak form
• • Market-implied home probability (58.8%) is substantially below our 67% estimate