Suhani Patil vs Leah Luboldt
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We find small positive value backing Leah Luboldt at 1.14 based on a conservative 92% win estimate versus an 87.7% market-implied probability, producing ~4.9% ROI.
Highlights
- • Current odds (1.14) exceed our fair-price threshold (1.087)
- • Positive expected value of ~4.9% under conservative assumptions
Pros
- + Favored player priced below our conservative fair odds, giving positive EV
- + Short-priced favorites often represent stable, lower-variance betting opportunities
Cons
- - Research was unavailable; our probability is an informed assumption and could be off
- - Low payout on short odds means even positive EV yields small absolute returns and is sensitive to model error
Details
We compare the market-implied probability (away 1.14 => 87.72%) to our conservative estimated true probability (92%). With no external data available on recent form, surface, injuries or H2H, we adopt a conservative high-confidence estimate that the favorite (Leah Luboldt) has a 92% chance to win. At that probability the fair decimal price is 1.087; the current market price of 1.14 is superior, creating positive expected value. We acknowledge higher uncertainty than usual due to missing research, so our estimate errs toward caution; nonetheless the gap between implied and estimated probability yields a modest edge.
Key factors
- • Market-implied probability for away is 87.72% (1.14)
- • Conservative estimated true probability for away is 92%
- • No external data on injuries, surface or form increases uncertainty