Highlights

• • Market implies ~94.6% for the home favourite
• • Our conservative estimate is 88%, producing a negative EV at current odds

Pros

• + Favourite is strongly supported by market pricing
• + If additional confirming info (injury to favourite, late withdrawal) appeared, price would be clearly justified

Cons

• - Quoted price is too short relative to our conservative probability estimate (no value)
• - Lack of match-specific data increases uncertainty and risk of unseen factors

Details

We estimate the true win probability for the home favourite at about 88% given no additional research, unknown surface/conditions, and the general higher stability of tennis favourites in lower-tier events. The market price of 1.057 implies ~94.6% probability, which exceeds our conservative estimate and therefore offers negative expected value. Because we lack specific form, injury, or H2H data, we remain conservative and do not recommend backing either side at the quoted prices.

Key factors

• • Market-implied probability (1.057 => ~94.6%) is higher than our conservative true probability estimate
• • No match-specific data (form, surface, injuries, H2H) was available, so we use conservative assumptions
• • Tennis upsets can occur; without positive edge or information the market price is not attractive