Sunam Jeong vs Dabin Kim

Highlights

• • Home implied probability at 1.70 = 58.8%, above our 57.0% estimate
• • Away implied probability at 2.06 = 48.5%, above our 43.0% estimate for that player

Pros

• + Both players’ data are available and comparable, allowing a conservative probability estimate
• + Home designation provides a justifiable small edge if market prices drop

Cons

• - Current market prices do not offer positive EV for either side
• - Limited distinctive form or injury information means uncertainty remains high

Details

We compared the quoted moneyline prices to a realistic win-probability derived from the available profiles. Both players present nearly identical career records (10-21) and similar surface experience (clay, hard) with poor recent form, so there's no clear performance edge. We assign Sunam Jeong a slightly higher true probability (0.570) because she is listed as the home player (marginal home advantage) but that estimate is below the market-implied probability from the home price (1.7 => 58.8%). The away price (2.06 => 48.5% implied) would require Dabin Kim to be ~48.5% to be +EV; given identical records and recent losses, we estimate her true probability at ~0.430, which offers no value at 2.06. Because neither side shows positive expected value at the current market prices, we recommend no bet.

Key factors

• • Nearly identical career records and surface history for both players (10-21)
• • Both players show poor recent form in the provided recent-match snippets
• • Home designation gives only a marginal edge — not enough to justify current 1.7 price