Highlights

• • Home (Sungbeen) fair odds ~3.33 vs market 4.09 — positive edge
• • Away (Egor) priced as an overwhelming favourite despite only ~58.5% career win rate

Pros

• + Clear numerical mismatch between implied and estimated probabilities
• + Both players have hard-court experience so surface advantage is unclear (reduces hidden bias in the market price)

Cons

• - Limited contextual data (no H2H, opponent strength per match, or up-to-date injury info) increases model uncertainty
• - Underdog outcomes are volatile; a single match variance can erase expected gains

Details

We see a clear discrepancy between the market-implied probabilities and what the available career data suggest. The book markets price Egor Agafonov at 1.217 (≈82.1% implied) and Sungbeen Sim at 4.09 (≈24.4% implied). From the provided profiles, Egor's career win rate is ~58.5% (31-22) while Sungbeen's is ~31.3% (10-22). Using those baseline win-rates, adjusted for head-to-head unknowns and similar surface experience (both have match history on hard), we estimate Sungbeen's true chance here is ~30%. At that probability the fair odds are ~3.33 decimal; the current price 4.09 represents positive expected value. Calculation used: EV = p * decimal_odds - 1 = 0.30 * 4.09 - 1 = +0.227 (22.7% ROI on a 1-unit stake). We acknowledge limited context (no H2H, opponent-level adjustments, recent-match details limited) so we conservatively set the true probability at 30% rather than the raw career rate. Given the market's heavy favoritism of Egor, the mid-sized upside on Sungbeen represents a value bet.

Key factors

• • Market implies Egor ~82.1% win chance (1.217) which is substantially higher than his career win rate (~58.5%).
• • Sungbeen's career win rate (~31.3%) supports a higher upset probability (~30%) than the market-implied ~24.4%.
• • Both players have experience on hard courts; limited recent-form difference in the provided data reduces confidence in such a strong favourite price.