Suzan Lamens vs Eunhye Lee
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: Market pricing appears severely skewed; Eunhye Lee at 6.77 represents strong value given nearly identical player profiles and no clear advantage for the heavy favorite.
Highlights
- • Book implies only ~15% chance for Eunhye Lee despite similar records
- • Fair price estimated ~4.00; current 6.77 yields ~69% ROI
Pros
- + Large mispricing between implied and estimated true probability
- + No research evidence (form/injury/H2H) to justify the heavy favorite
Cons
- - Research sample is limited and both players have losing records (10-21), increasing variance
- - A single upset or unreported factor could nullify the observed pricing edge
Details
We find clear value on the away moneyline (Eunhye Lee) because the sportsbook price (6.77, implied win probability 14.8%) is inconsistent with the on-paper evidence. The research shows both players with nearly identical career spans, records (10-21), and surface history (hard/clay) and no reported injuries or head-to-head edge for Suzan Lamens that would justify an ~90% chance for the home player. Taking a conservative but plausible true win probability for Eunhye Lee of 25% (0.25) produces a required fair decimal price of 4.00; the current market price of 6.77 therefore offers a large positive edge. Using the current odds for the away side, EV = 0.25 * 6.77 - 1 = 0.6925 (≈69.3% ROI on a 1-unit stake). We recommend backing Eunhye Lee only because the market price materially understates her chance given the near-identical profiles and lack of differentiating factors in the available research.
Key factors
- • Both players show nearly identical recent records and surface experience
- • No injuries, H2H data, or form edge in the research favoring the heavy favorite
- • Market implies an implausibly low probability (14.8%) for the away player