Suzan Lamens vs Tatjana Maria
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We find value on Tatjana Maria at 2.31 — we estimate her win chance at 46%, producing ~6.3% expected ROI at current prices.
Highlights
- • Market overestimates Lamens as a >60% favorite despite similar form
- • Maria priced at 2.31 offers positive expected value by our model
Pros
- + Positive EV at current widely-available odds (≈+6.3% ROI)
- + Decision grounded on parity of recent form and Maria's experience
Cons
- - Both players have inconsistent recent form — outcome variance is high
- - Limited data and no clear head-to-head or injury info increases uncertainty
Details
We see Suzan Lamens priced as a clear favorite at 1.641 (implied ~60.9%) while Tatjana Maria is 2.31 (implied ~43.3%). The research shows both players have very similar recent records (each ~10-21) and mixed results on hard courts, so there is no strong form gap to justify a >60% market probability for Lamens. Maria brings more experience and comparable serve statistics in recent matches, which we view as giving her a slightly better chance than the market-implied 43.3%. We estimate Maria's true win probability at 46% (0.46). At the available price of 2.31 this yields positive value: EV = 0.46 * 2.31 - 1 = +0.063 (6.3% ROI). Therefore we recommend backing the away player Tatjana Maria because the market underprices her relative chance based on form parity, surface neutrality, and slight experiential edge.
Key factors
- • Both players show similar recent records (about 10-21) and inconsistent recent results
- • Match on hard surface where neither has a clear documented advantage
- • Tatjana Maria's experience and serving metrics give a small edge over Lamens
- • Book market implies 43.3% for Maria, we estimate 46% — creating value at 2.31
- • No clear H2H or injury information to materially shift probability