Highlights

• • Rosenkranz: deep match experience and better record
• • Corbinais: minimal pro sample and poor recent results

Pros

• + Current odds require only ~95.15% true probability to break even
• + Clear mismatch in experience and results favors Rosenkranz

Cons

• - Edge is small in absolute terms — low margin per unit staked
• - Tennis volatility, retirements, or last-minute withdrawals could erase value

Details

We see a pronounced talent and experience gap: Mats Rosenkranz has a long match history (74 matches, 44-30) across surfaces and recent continuity, while Sven Corbinais has only six career matches with a 1-5 record. The market price (away 1.051) implies a required win probability of about 95.15% to break even. Given Rosenkranz’s clear superiority in experience, form sample size, and surface coverage and no injury information for either player, we estimate Rosenkranz’s true win probability materially above the breakeven threshold. Using a conservative true probability of 98.5% versus the quoted 1.051, the wager returns a small positive expected value. We prefer the away side only because current decimals offer a tiny but real edge relative to our probability estimate; we would not recommend laying on the home side given its extremely long odds and implausible upset chance.

Key factors

• • Large experience and match-count advantage for Rosenkranz (74 matches vs 6)
• • Corbinais very limited pro record (1-5) suggesting low upset probability
• • Current market price (1.051) implies a >95% win probability to be fair