T. Babos/L. Stefani vs I. Martins/L. Pigossi

Highlights

• • Market price implies 78.1% chance; our estimate 80.0% gives positive EV
• • Required odds to justify bet are 1.25; available price 1.28 offers slight value

Pros

• + Quoted price exceeds our conservative fair odds, producing positive expected value
• + Simple, low-leverage value: avoids overconfident assumptions given scarce data

Cons

• - Edge is small (≈2.4% ROI) and sensitive to modest estimation error
• - No match-specific research available (injuries, recent form, surface, head-to-head), increasing variance

Details

We find a small positive edge backing the home pair at the quoted price. The market price of 1.28 implies a win probability of 78.125%. Given limited public information, a conservative estimate of the home pair's true win probability is 80.0% based on the heavy market favoritism and typical skill/experience gap signaled by such prices. Using p = 0.80, expected value = p * odds - 1 = 0.80 * 1.28 - 1 = 0.024 (2.4% ROI). The min fair odds for our estimate are 1.25; the offered 1.28 therefore contains slight positive value. We note elevated uncertainty because no match-specific form, injury, surface, or H2H data were available, so this is a small, conservative edge rather than a large confidence call.

Key factors

• • Market-implied probability (1.28 => 78.125%) shows heavy favoritism
• • Conservative true probability estimate slightly above market (80%) yields small edge
• • High uncertainty due to lack of match-specific data (form, injuries, surface, H2H)