T. Hilderbrand/M. Kiger vs M. Martineau/J. Paris
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: With no additional intelligence, we treat the matchup as even and find small value backing the home team at 2.10 (≈5% edge); this is a marginal play contingent on parity holding.
Highlights
- • Baseline assumed probability: 50%
- • Required odds to beat break-even: 2.00; market offers 2.10
Pros
- + Current price (2.10) is above our conservative fair odds (2.00), yielding positive EV
- + Higher variance in doubles increases chance of market mispricing
Cons
- - No match-specific data to validate the parity assumption — edge is small and fragile
- - Market appears to favor the away team; any small informational advantage for away erases value
Details
We have no matchup-specific data (form, surface, injuries, H2H), so we apply a conservative, baseline model that treats the teams as approximately evenly matched in a doubles event with higher variance. The market prices the away team as a modest favorite (implied ~59.9% for away), but absent corroborating information we estimate a true win probability for the home side at 50.0%. At the current home moneyline of 2.10 this produces a small positive edge: EV = 0.50 * 2.10 - 1 = 0.05 (5% ROI). The value is marginal and depends on our parity assumption; if additional info (injury, surface advantage, recent form) points toward the away side, the value would evaporate.
Key factors
- • No match-specific data available — use conservative 50/50 baseline
- • Current market prices home at 2.10 which exceeds break-even (2.00) for our estimate
- • Doubles matches have higher variance, making modest pricing inefficiencies more likely