T. Icardo Alcorisa/M. Ortega Gallego vs A. Sánchez Fallada/P. Josemaria Martin

Highlights

• • Away is a strong market favorite at 1.20 (implied ~83%).
• • Home would need odds ~8.333 to be a positive EV bet under our estimate.

Pros

• + If the underdog were mispriced, current odds would deliver a very large payout.
• + Market clarity (strong favorite) reduces ambiguity about where value would need to be.

Cons

• - Current home price (4.30) is far below the threshold for positive EV given our probability estimate.
• - No available research or indicators to justify upgrading the underdog probability materially.

Details

We have no external research or injury/form data, so we use a conservative, market-aware assessment. The market prices the away pair at 1.20 (implied ~83.3%) and the home pair at 4.30 (implied ~23.3%). Given the heavy market favoritism and lack of contradicting information, we estimate the true win probability for the home underdog at 12% (0.12). At that probability the break-even probability for the quoted home price (4.30) is 23.26%, meaning the current price substantially underestimates the true likelihood required for value. EV = 0.12 * 4.30 - 1 = -0.484, so the home side is a large negative-expected-value play at the current price. To offer positive EV on the home side we would need decimal odds of about 8.333 or higher. Because no clear evidence exists to materially raise our probability estimate of the underdog, we do not recommend betting either side at the posted prices.

Key factors

• • Market heavily favors the away pair (1.20) implying ~83% probability
• • No external research available to challenge the market; we use a conservative prior
• • Break-even odds for the underdog (1/0.12) are ~8.333 — far above the offered 4.30