Highlights

• • Away implied probability: 80.65% (1/1.24)
• • Our conservative estimated probability: 75.0% → EV at 1.24 = -7.0%

Pros

• + Clear market favorite makes probabilities easy to compare
• + Conservative approach prevents overbetting in absence of data

Cons

• - Lack of match-specific data increases uncertainty
• - Heavy favourite means small margins — requires very accurate probability edges to find value

Details

We see a clear market favourite in the away pair at 1.24 (implied probability 80.65%) and the home underdogs at 3.70 (implied probability 27.03%). With no external form, injury, surface or H2H data available, we apply conservative assumptions and avoid overfitting. We estimate the away pair's true win probability at 75.0%, lower than the market-implied 80.65%; using that estimate the expected value of backing the favourite at 1.24 is negative: EV = 0.75 * 1.24 - 1 = -0.07 (-7.0% ROI). The underdog's current price would require a true win probability of at least 27.03% to be fairly priced; given our conservative view we do not assign the home pair sufficient probability to justify a bet at 3.70. Therefore we do not recommend a side because neither price offers positive expected value under our conservative probability estimate.

Key factors

• • No external research available — we use conservative baseline assumptions
• • Market strongly favours the away pair at 1.24 (implied 80.65%)
• • Our conservative true probability (75.0%) is below market pricing, producing a negative EV
• • High uncertainty due to lack of injury, form, surface and H2H information