T. Lemaitre/M. Mattel vs N. Bains/R. Bhosale
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: With no external data and a conservative estimated win probability of 57% for the away pair, the quoted away price (1.70) is below our fair odds (~1.754) and shows negative EV, so we recommend no bet.
Highlights
- • Away implied probability (1.70) = ~58.8%; our conservative estimate = 57.0%
- • Required fair price for positive EV on away = 1.754; market price is lower
Pros
- + Market clearly identifies an away favorite, simplifying probability focus
- + We used conservative assumptions to avoid overestimating value
Cons
- - No match-specific data (form/surface/injuries/H2H) increases uncertainty
- - Bookmaker margin reduces the chance of finding thin edges given limited info
Details
We have no external form, surface, injury, or head-to-head data and must make conservative assumptions. The market shows the away pair as the favorite (1.70) and the home pair at 2.05, implying market probabilities of ~58.8% (away) and ~48.8% (home) after converting odds. Given the lack of additional information, we estimate the away team's true win probability slightly lower than the market-implied figure at 57.0% to account for unknowns and the bookmaker margin. At that estimated probability, the fair decimal price for the away side would be ~1.754, which is greater than the quoted 1.70; therefore the quoted away price offers negative expected value. The home side would need a true probability above ~48.8% to be +EV at 2.05; we do not have sufficient reason to assign the home side that likelihood. Because neither side offers positive expected value under our conservative estimate, we do not recommend a bet.
Key factors
- • No available external data on form, surface, injuries, or H2H — we apply conservative assumptions
- • Market favors the away team at 1.70; implied probability (58.8%) exceeds our conservative true estimate (57.0%)
- • Bookmaker margin and limited info increase uncertainty and reduce confidence in finding value