Highlights

• • Market-implied probability: 76.92%; our estimate: 78%
• • Positive but small EV (about 1.4% of stake) at current odds

Pros

• + Current price (1.30) exceeds the minimum required decimal (1.282) for our probability estimate
• + Conservative estimating approach reduces likelihood of overstatement

Cons

• - Very limited match-specific information (no injuries, form, surface, H2H) increases model uncertainty
• - EV is small — sensitive to slight changes in true probability or market movement

Details

We compared the market-implied probability (1/1.30 = 76.92%) to a conservative estimated true probability of 78%. With no injury, surface, or head-to-head data provided, we applied a small conservative uplift above the market-implied rate to account for potential bookmaker margin and typical favourite edge in doubles. Using p = 0.78 and the available decimal odds 1.30, the expected value is small but positive (EV = 0.78 * 1.30 - 1 = 0.014). This is marginal value; it relies on limited information so we remain conservative in our probability estimate.

Key factors

• • Market-implied probability (76.92%) vs our conservative estimate (78%)
• • No injury, form, surface, or H2H data provided — increases uncertainty
• • Small margin of expected value due to conservative uplift over implied price