T. Babos/L. Stefani vs A. Barnett/E. Lechemia
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We find a small positive edge on T. Babos/L. Stefani at 1.30 based on a conservative 79% true win probability; the expected ROI is modest (~2.7%) and sensitive to uncertainty.
Highlights
- • Implied market probability: 76.92%; our estimate: 79.0%
- • Minimum fair odds required: 1.266; current price 1.30 offers slight value
Pros
- + Positive expected value at current price (EV ≈ 2.7%)
- + Conservative assumptions reduce overconfidence in the estimate
Cons
- - Edge is small and could be eliminated by small changes in true probability
- - No up-to-date surface, injury, or form data; doubles outcomes can be volatile
Details
We compare the market-implied probability (1/1.30 = 76.92%) to our conservative estimate of the true win probability for T. Babos/L. Stefani at 79.0%. With limited external data available we apply a conservative premium to the listed favorites based on presumed greater doubles experience and team cohesion. At our estimated probability the home side offers a small positive edge versus the market price; the edge is modest and sensitive to uncertainty (doubles has higher variance and we lack up-to-date form/injury information). Given the current decimal price of 1.30, the expected value is positive but limited, so we recommend betting the home side only acknowledging the modest margin and attendant risk.
Key factors
- • Market-implied probability (76.92%) vs our conservative estimate (79.0%)
- • Presumed experience and doubles-specialist advantage for the home pairing
- • Higher variance in doubles and lack of up-to-date injury/form data increases uncertainty