T. Babos/L. Stefani vs S. Sierra/R. Zarazua
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We find small positive value on the home doubles at 1.26 based on a conservative 82% win estimate, producing ~+3.3% ROI versus the market price.
Highlights
- • Market implies 79.4% for the home side; we estimate 82.0%
- • Positive EV at current odds (EV ≈ +0.0332 per 1 unit staked)
Pros
- + Home side priced slightly too short relative to our conservative win estimate, yielding value
- + Doubles specialists / pairing chemistry assumed to favor the home team
Cons
- - No external match-specific sources were available; our estimate is conservative but uncertain
- - Edge is small (~3.3% ROI) and sensitive to errors in the probability estimate
Details
We compare the market-implied probability for the home team (1/1.26 = 79.4%) to our conservative estimated win probability. Given the pairing of T. Babos and L. Stefani, we conservatively estimate they have better doubles experience/chemistry than S. Sierra/R. Zarazua and assign an estimated true probability of 82.0%. At the current decimal price of 1.26 this yields positive expected value (EV = 0.82*1.26 - 1 = +0.0332). We note limited external information and therefore remain conservative in our probability — the market would need to push home odds shorter than ~1.22 (implied >81.97%) to eliminate value. Because the current market price (1.26) implies ~79.4% and we estimate 82.0%, the home side represents small but real positive EV under our assumptions.
Key factors
- • Strong doubles pairing assumed for T. Babos / L. Stefani relative to opponents
- • Market-implied probability (79.4%) is lower than our conservative estimate (82.0%)
- • Research availability is limited, so estimates are conservative and carry additional uncertainty