Highlights

• • Market-implied prob for home: ~39.2% vs our estimate 42.0%
• • Required fair odds to break even: 2.381; current offer: 2.55

Pros

• + Current odds exceed our conservative fair price, creating positive EV
• + Edge exists even after applying cautious probability due to lack of detailed info

Cons

• - No match-specific data (form, surface, injuries, H2H) increases model risk
• - Edge is modest; variance and bookmaker hold can erode returns

Details

We have no external data on form, injuries, or H2H, so we apply a conservative baseline assessment. The market prices the away pair at 1.46 (implied win probability ~68.5%) and the home pair at 2.55 (implied ~39.2%). Given the short favorite and typical inefficiencies in low-profile events, we conservatively estimate the true win probability for the home side at 42.0%. At that probability the fair decimal price would be 2.381, so the current 2.55 price offers value. EV calculation: EV = 0.42 * 2.55 - 1 = 0.071 (7.1% ROI). Because the edge is modest and uncertainty is high we recommend a selective bet on the home side only if the stated price is available.

Key factors

• • No external data available—using conservative baseline probability
• • Market-implied probability for home (1/2.55 ≈ 39.2%) is below our estimate (42.0%)
• • Modest edge in lower-profile events can exist but uncertainty is elevated