T. Rakotomanga Rajaonah/L. Tran vs E. Appleton/I. Haverlag

Highlights

• • Favorite implied probability (1.34) > our conservative estimate → negative EV
• • Required minimum decimal odds for value is ~1.429; market offers 1.34

Pros

• + Market strongly favors the away side, reflecting perceived quality
• + If our conservative estimate is too low and actual probability is ≥74.6%, the favorite would become value

Cons

• - Insufficient public data increases uncertainty and requires conservative probability adjustments
• - Current prices are not generous enough to overcome our uncertainty premium

Details

We have no external form, surface, injury, or H2H data, so we apply conservative assumptions. The market prices the away side at 1.34 (implied ~74.6%). Conservatively we estimate the away pair's true win probability at 70% (0.70) to account for unknown variables and bookmaker margin. At that probability the fair decimal price is 1.429 (1 / 0.70). The current price of 1.34 is shorter than the fair price, producing a negative expected return (EV = 0.70 * 1.34 - 1 = -0.062 per unit). The home underdog at 3.05 also fails to offer positive EV under reasonable adjustments (even if home true chance were 30% EV = 0.30 * 3.05 - 1 = -0.085). With both sides showing negative EV under conservative probability estimates, we do not recommend a bet.

Key factors

• • No independent data on form, surface, injuries or H2H — must be conservative
• • Bookmaker-implied probability for away (1.34) is ~74.6% which exceeds our conservative true estimate (70%)
• • Fair decimal for our estimate is 1.429; available price 1.34 is too short to generate positive EV