Highlights

• • Market price implies ~63.0% win chance; our estimate is 64.0%
• • Positive but small EV (~1.6% ROI per unit)

Pros

• + Clearer season win-rate advantage for the home player
• + Price is above our minimum required odds (1.563) to justify a bet

Cons

• - Edge is small — outcome subject to typical high variance in ITF-level tennis
• - Limited head-to-head and injury/conditioning detail increases uncertainty

Details

We find small but positive value on the home player Tadeas Paroulek at the quoted decimal price (1.588). Paroulek has a stronger overall win percentage (33-20) than Jakub Filip (18-20) and more match volume, and both players have activity on clay/hard surfaces consistent with this ITF event. The market-implied probability for the home line is 1/1.588 = 62.96%. After accounting for relative career records, recent form signals, and surface familiarity, we estimate Paroulek's true win probability at 64.0%, which is modestly higher than the market-implied 62.96%, producing a positive expected value. The edge is small (EV ≈ 1.6% per unit) and comes with the normal variance of lower-tier ITF events and limited available head-to-head information, so this is a low-margin value bet rather than a large, confident overlay.

Key factors

• • Paroulek superior season win-loss (33-20) versus Filip (18-20)
• • Both play on clay/hard but Paroulek shows more match volume and consistency
• • Market-implied probability (62.96%) is slightly below our estimated true probability (64.0%)