Highlights

• • Bookmakers price Paroulek as ~75% likelihood; we assess the match much closer.
• • Estimated ROI on Bocchi at current odds is roughly +23% per unit staked.

Pros

• + Clear positive EV at current widely available odds (3.24)
• + Similar career win rates suggest the favorite is overvalued on grass/qualifier volatility

Cons

• - Very limited grass-specific data for both players increases uncertainty
• - Small sample sizes and lack of H2H or injury information raise variance and risk of market movement

Details

We see market odds of 1.327 for Paroulek (implied ~75.3% win chance) and 3.24 for Bocchi (implied ~30.9%). Both players' profiles show they are primarily clay/hard players with limited or no documented grass experience; that makes outcomes on grass more variable and reduces a clear edge for the heavy favorite. Their career win rates are very similar (Paroulek ~62% across more matches; Bocchi ~63% across fewer matches) and recent results show both with losses in qualifying events, so we view the matchup as much closer than the market implies. Conservatively estimating Bocchi's true win probability at 38% (0.38) and using the available price of 3.24 gives EV = 0.38 * 3.24 - 1 = +0.2312 (23.1% ROI per unit). Because our assessed probability (38%) exceeds the market-implied probability for Bocchi (~30.9%), the away price of 3.24 represents value. We therefore recommend backing Bocchi at current market odds.

Key factors

• • Both players primarily play on clay/hard with limited grass experience → higher variance and less clear favorite
• • Career win rates are similar (Paroulek ~62%, Bocchi ~63%) despite Paroulek being the heavy market favorite
• • Market-implied probability for Bocchi (~30.9%) appears low versus our assessed probability (38%), creating positive EV