Highlights

• • Market implies 43.9% for Paroulek; we estimate 55%
• • Minimum fair odds to break even on our estimate are ~1.818, well below current 2.28

Pros

• + Clear overall form edge in career win-rate for Paroulek
• + Current price (2.28) offers meaningful positive EV versus our probability

Cons

• - Both players lack grass-specific data, increasing match uncertainty
• - No head-to-head, injury, or fitness details available to further refine the model

Details

We find value backing the home player, Tadeas Paroulek, at the current decimal price 2.28. The market-implied probability for Paroulek at 2.28 is ~43.9%, but his career win-loss profile (33-20, ~62% overall) versus Filip Pieczonka (17-21, ~45% overall) suggests a materially higher true win probability even after discounting for unknown grass form. We conservatively estimate Paroulek's true win probability at 55.0%, which implies the fair price should be ~1.818. At the quoted 2.28 there is a positive expected value: EV = 0.55 * 2.28 - 1 = +0.254 (25.4% ROI). Key risks that reduce confidence are lack of grass-specific data and absence of head-to-head/fitness information, but those are already partly discounted in our conservative 55% estimate. Given the market is favoring Pieczonka, the available odds represent a clear value opportunity on Paroulek.

Key factors

• • Paroulek's superior overall win-loss record (33-20) vs Pieczonka (17-21)
• • Market-implied probability (43.9%) underestimates Paroulek relative to our 55% estimate
• • Uncertainty on grass form for both players increases variance but is partially priced into conservative probability