Highlights

• • Market implies Kokkinis ~82.9% to win; research does not support that level of dominance
• • At our 47% estimate, Varaksina's odds of 3.91 yield a high positive EV (≈0.84 per 1 unit staked)

Pros

• + Strong value gap between estimated probability and market price
• + No evidence from the supplied data to justify the heavy favorite tag

Cons

• - Research is sparse and contains no head-to-head or detailed matchup edges
• - High variance inherent in tennis matches; single-match outcomes can be volatile

Details

Market prices make Tahlia Kokkinis a heavy favorite (1.206, implied ~82.9%) while Arina Varaksina is priced at 3.91 (implied ~25.6%) despite the research showing near-identical profiles: same career span, identical 10-21 records, and similar recent results on hard courts. There is no injury, form, or H2H information in the provided research to justify an >80% true win chance for Kokkinis. Given the parity in the available data and the bookmakers' clear overpricing of Kokkinis, we estimate Varaksina's true win probability materially above the market-implied 25.6%. Using an estimated true probability of 47% for Varaksina and the current decimal price of 3.91, the expected value is positive (EV = 0.47 * 3.91 - 1 = 0.838). The minimum fair decimal odds for Varaksina at our estimate are 2.128, well below the available 3.91, signaling value on the away side.

Key factors

• • Both players show nearly identical records (10-21) and recent results in the provided research
• • Bookmaker-implied probabilities are heavily skewed toward the home player without supporting evidence
• • No injuries, surface disadvantages, or h2h information provided to justify the large favorite