Tahlia Kokkinis vs Arina Varaksina
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: No value at current prices — the market overprices the home favorite compared with our ~57% estimate, yielding a negative EV at 1.22.
Highlights
- • Market-implied probability (82%) >> our estimated probability (57%)
- • Fair odds threshold for value is ~1.754; current 1.22 is far below that
Pros
- + Research shows both players have similar experience and surface history — reducing chance of a large overlooked advantage
- + If odds drift toward 1.75+ the home side would become a value play according to our model
Cons
- - Current market price (1.22) produces a substantial negative ROI versus our estimate
- - Very limited differentiating data in the provided research (no injuries, H2H or clear form advantage)
Details
We see the market strongly favors the home player Tahlia Kokkinis at 1.22 (implied ~82.0%). The available research shows nearly identical profiles and recent results for both players (matching 10-21 records on clay/hard) with no clear H2H, surface edge, or injury information to justify such a large market gap. Based on the limited data, we estimate Kokkinis' true win probability near 57%, which implies fair odds ~1.754. At the current quoted price (1.22) the bet has a negative expectation (EV = 0.57 * 1.22 - 1 = -0.305), so there is no value. Therefore we recommend no bet unless prices rise to at least ~1.754 or better.
Key factors
- • Both players show effectively identical career records and surfaces in the provided data (10-21)
- • Market heavily favors home at 1.22 (implied ~82%) while our estimated probability is far lower (~57%)
- • No H2H, injury, or clear form edge in the research to justify the market margin