Highlights

• • Isomura is the stronger hard-court player with a larger sample and better record
• • Market favourite odds (1.488) are shorter than our fair estimate (≈1.613) → negative EV

Pros

• + Clear market favorite aligned with form and surface data
• + We have a concrete fair-price estimate to monitor for value if lines drift

Cons

• - Current prices offer negative expected value on both sides
• - Limited recent head-to-head or additional context in the provided research increases uncertainty

Details

We compare the market prices (Taisei Ichikawa 2.50, Kokoro Isomura 1.488) to our assessed win likelihoods based solely on the provided profiles. Kokoro Isomura has a larger sample on hard courts and a superior overall record (36-30 vs 18-22) and appears to be the deserved favorite; we estimate Kokoro's true win probability at about 62%. That implies fair decimal odds around 1.613, which is longer than the market favourite price of 1.488, so the market has priced Kokoro too short for value. Ichikawa as the underdog looks beatable on hard and his overall record and limited match volume reduce our confidence in a higher probability than the market-implied 0.40. Both sides are negative-expected-value at the current quotes, so we recommend no bet.

Key factors

• • Surface: both players have recent hard-court activity; Kokoro has more hard-court experience
• • Form & sample size: Kokoro’s larger match volume and better record imply a clear favorite edge
• • Market pricing: favourite price (1.488) is shorter than our fair-price estimate (≈1.613), eliminating positive EV