Taiyo Yamanaka vs Weiwen Pan
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We find value on Taiyo Yamanaka at 1.163 because his experience and hard-court form justify a ~90% win probability versus Pan, producing a modest positive EV (~4.7%).
Highlights
- • Market implies ~86% for Yamanaka; our estimate 90%
- • Positive EV at current price: ~+0.047 per unit staked
Pros
- + Clear experience and match-volume advantage in the provided data
- + Both players' activity on hard courts reduces surface uncertainty
Cons
- - Heavy favorite outcomes can still produce upsets; absolute margin of value is modest
- - Limited detailed match-by-match context and no direct H2H data in the research increases uncertainty
Details
We compare the market-implied probability for Taiyo Yamanaka (1.163 => implied ~86.0%) to our estimated true win probability of 90%. Yamanaka has a substantially larger match sample (46 matches, 26-20) and consistent hard-court activity in the research window, while Weiwen Pan has a small sample (10 matches) and a 3-7 record on hard. The market price appears to understate Yamanaka's chance by roughly 4 percentage points even after accounting for typical commission. At our estimate the bet offers positive expected value: 0.90*1.163 - 1 = +0.0467 (≈4.7% ROI). We factor in the favorite's reduced volatility but still account for upset risk due to day-to-day form and small-sample uncertainty for Pan.
Key factors
- • Yamanaka has a much larger recent match sample and a winning record (26-20) versus Pan's 3-7
- • Both players' recorded matches in research were on hard courts — experience favors Yamanaka
- • Market-implied probability (≈86%) is below our conservative true estimate (90%), creating value